CCIM Florida Chapter Miami-Dade/Monroe District’s 12th Annual Outlook Conference Recap

On January 27th, CCIM Miami-Dade District hosted its biggest event of the year, the CCIM Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference, at the Coral Gables Country Club. CCIM Miami’s 12th annual Outlook Conference featured top commercial real estate professionals from various sectors – office, industrial, multifamily, retail and capital markets. This year’s conference attracted over 275 industry leaders. It was a morning jam-packed with up to date market information about South Florida.

Economy:

The Keynote speaker of the day was Dr. Sean Snaith, director of the University of Central Florida’s Institute for Economic Competitiveness.

Dr. Snaith gave an overwhelmingly positive outlook for Florida’s economy despite the anemic pace of economic recovery – 10 years after the great recession. He applauded the Trump administration’s new policies geared toward economic growth:

• Tax Reform: Corporate Tax rate lowered from 35% to 21%
• Regulation Relief: 22 deregulatory actions for 1 regulatory action. Deregulation has been the “secret sauce” boosting our economy
• Prediction 2018: 3.5% GDP Growth, with wage & salary growth
• Florida is expected to continue its population growth, more people, more economic activity

Office Market: Tere Blanca, Blanca Commercial Real Estate

Mrs. Blanca emphasized Miami as a global city, its biggest draw being Miami’s position as the  Gateway to Latin America.

• Miami’s Office Market has positive absorption. Low vacancy with demand higher than supply.
• Mass Transportation: Brightline’s train connection from West Palm to Miami will have positive effect on South Florida’s Office market.
• Energy of urbanization: Redevelopment projects in Downtown, Brickell, and Coral Gables.

Multifamily: Peter Mekras, Aztec

Mr. Mekras has a positive view of Florida’s economy

• Florida population is booming, 900 new Florida residents a day, with 230 concentrated in South Florida.
• 2.6 people per household
• Internal Rate of Return has lowered, with Core and Institutional investments at 5.5%-7.5% IRR.

Capital Markets: Danny Finkle, HFF

• Billion dollar of loans maturing each day
• Underwriting has been very aggressive
• Most amount of raised capital has remained unused. Not many deals in the market.

Retail: Arden Karson, CBRE

Mrs. Karson tackled head on 3 big myths concerning the retail sector.

• First, consumers are not spending at retail stores. Rebuttal: Consumers are spending differently. Focused on less products and more service: Gym, Pilates, and Martial Arts.
• Second, people only buying online. Rebuttal: People prefer to see product in person. Online orders are more prone to returns.
• Third, Brick and Mortars stores are dying. Rebuttal: The stores that are dying are those that have failed to adapt. Retail is going through transformation. Must emphasize experiences.

Industrial: Michael Silver, SIOR, CBRE

Mr. Silver noted that the industrial market is on fire. South Florida has 350 million square feet of industrial space. Vacancy rate in South Florida is at 3%.

• Largest Industrial SF market in Miami: North Central Dade, Central Dade, Medley, Airport/Doral.
• Amazon warehouse in Opa Locka will bring in 1,000 jobs.
• Air Glades airport: slated for delivery in the next couple years. It will be dedicated to transportation of perished goods.

Conclusion:

The 2018 economic outlook for South Florida looks very bright!  Many attendees perceived this year’s conference as one of the best ever, and we look forward to hosting future CCIM Outlook Conferences in South Florida.